Friday, June 29, 2007

All the right moves

Every time I bust out I second guess my move. Even going all-in pre-flop, short stacked with pocket Queens I'd think, "If I'd had just limped in, when A/K on the flop I might have bailed and saved doubled or tripled up a few hands later," even though I *know* that I made the proper move (IE, the move with the best results over the long term).

I've been reading Harrington on Hold'em Volume II: The Endgame and it's really improved the way I view my short stack game. I highly recommend that you get a copy if you haven't read it yet (but be sure to read Volume I first). As conservative as "Action Dan" Harrington is, he advocates making big do-or-die moves while you still have enough chips to scare people off. That is, if you wait too long for a great hand to double up with you'll get a lot more callers, reducing your chances of staying in the game. Also, since you have fewer chips to bet with the rewards are slimmer.

It feels comforting to get confirmation that you made the right decision.
If you read my last post you'll see that when I went out I had around 300 (325 I think) in chips with 40/80 blinds. That gave me an "M" (your M is basically the number of rounds you can see before being blinded out) of about 2.5, clearly in Harrington's "Red Zone." I was first to act with King/Ten at a full 9-player table, and I went all-in pre-flop.
This evening I flipped back through around 20 example hands to see if I could drum up a similiar hand, and came upon this beauty:

His examples are taken from real hands that people have played, and the results are the actual results (sometimes good, sometimes bad). My situation was almost identical to his, but my results were very different. Two people called, one with an Ace that hit the flop and ended up winning the pot.
I think I got the two calls because I had gone all-in about a dozen hands earlier with 8/8, and nobody looked me up. I think the first guy called with A/4 because he wasn't going to put up with me going all-in again, and the other caller was the most aggressive guy at the table and called just to help knock me out. Earlier he'd called someone's 400'ish all-in even though he only had 10/8 off-suit, declaring "I have nothing but I'll make the call to knock you out." He lost that hand. But he never did reveal his hand when he knocked me out, so he may have had some legitimate drawing hand. Knowing him it was probably something like middle connectors.

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